Bellwether Research & Consulting

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It’s more important to elect women to state legislatures than to send one to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

When will the United States elect a woman president? It’s a worthy question that generates a lot of ink every four years. One could argue that we did elect a woman president in 2016 if only it were the popular vote rather than the electoral college that counted for a win in our system. Many thought 2020 would be the year, yet none of the six women seeking the Democratic presidential nomination were successful. In 2024, while it is theoretically possible, it is improbable, that Nikki Haley will be the Republican nominee to beat Joe Biden and win the White House. If Nikki Haley does indeed fall short, the question of a woman president will have to wait another four years. However, we don’t have to wait to elect more women where we really need them in 2024.

While I think having a woman president would be nice, it’s not as important as electing more women state representatives and state senators. While more women serve at this level than ever before, two-thirds of state legislators are still men. In fact, in South Carolina there are as many men named Tom (five) as women in the state senate.

With the Dobbs decision overturning Roe vs. Wade, decisions about reproductive rights were thrown to the states, specifically state legislatures. Not coincidentally, the ten states with the lowest percentage of women in their state legislatures (West Virginia, Mississippi, South Carolina, Tennessee, Alabama, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Arkansas, and North Dakota), all have total or near total abortion ban laws. The abortion ban passed by the Wyoming legislature is temporarily suspended while under judicial review and in South Carolina, the women in the state senate– all five of them – bonded across party lines to prevent a total abortion ban, so the state does have exceptions for rape and incest.

The women senators in South Carolina (3 Republicans, 1 Democrat and 1 Independent) support differing restrictions on abortion, but all understand the complexities and complications that arise from both wanted and unwanted pregnancies in ways that the men do not. In fact, as any woman knows, get five women together and it is a virtual certainty that one of them will have experienced a miscarriage or complication with a pregnancy.

In focus groups I was involved with earlier this year among conservatives who live in states with abortion bans, a pro-life woman volunteered that “each situation is different” when it comes to instances where a woman may need to terminate a pregnancy whether for a non-viable fetus or a woman’s cancer diagnosis. A few of the conservative men, however, suggested that a woman might fake a cancer diagnosis in order to get an abortion. The women did not think this.

More stories like that of Kate Cox, a mom from Texas with a wanted, but non-viable pregnancy who was denied an exception to Texas’ strict abortion ban will make news. Voters in states with abortion bans will see that the reasonable exceptions they thought were in place are not there. In fact, our research shows that voters in abortion ban states are largely unaware of how strict their state’s abortion laws are and, once informed of the reality, show strong support for loosening these restrictions.

In 2024, it is my hope that more women than ever before decide to run for state elective office. It is arguable that women and men might approach budgets and infrastructure similarly, but there is no doubt that we need women’s personal experiences and understanding when it comes to reproductive rights.

Just 18% of Americans say it is extremely or somewhat important to them that a woman is elected president in their lifetime (Pew Research 2023). Let’s hope more think it’s important to elect women to state legislatures in 2024.